(A) Retail Sales → Sidee u saameeyaan PMI, GDP, CPI, NFP & Interest Rates?
Marka dadka wax badan iibsadaan (Retail Sales ↑):
1. Shirkaduhu waxay sameeyaan lacag badan
2. Waxay kordhiyaan wax-soo-saarka → PMI ↑
3. Shaqooyin badan ayaa la abuurayaa → NFP ↑, Unemployment ↓, Jobless Claims ↓
4. Baahida badan waxay kordhisaa qiimaha → CPI (inflation) ↑
5. Inflation kor u kacda → Bangiga dhexe wuxuu kordhiyaa dulsaar → Interest Rates ↑
6. Dulsaar kordhay → Lacagta dalku wuu xoogeysaa (USD/EUR/GBP bullish)
Retail Sales waa engine-ka dhaqaalaha.
2. PMI → Wax-soo-saarka & Shaqo-abuurka
Marka PMI sarreeyo (>50):
Warshaduhu waxay kordhiyaan waxsoo-saarka
Waxay shaqaaleysiinayaan dad badan → NFP ↑, Unemployment ↓
Wax-soo-saarka sare wuxuu kordhiyaa GDP → GDP ↑
Wax-soo-saarka badan iyo dalab sare waxay kordhiyaan qiimaha → CPI ↑
Marka PMI hoos u dhaco (<50):
Shirkaduhu wax yar ayay soo saaraan
Dad ayaa la ceyriyaan → Jobless Claims ↑, Unemployment ↑
GDP ayaa hoos u dhacda → GDP ↓
Inflation ayaa daciifta → CPI ↓
Bangiga dhexe wuxuu yareeyaa dulsaar → Interest Rate ↓
Lacagta dalku wuu daciifaa
3. CPI (Inflation) → Xudunta go’aanka Bangiga Dhexe
CPI ↑ (Inflation sare)
→ Bangiga dhexe wuxuu kordhiyaa interest rate
→ Dulsaar sare → lacagtu wuu xoogeysaa
→ Forex pairs-ka saameyn weyn bay helaan (XAUUSD kor/hoos ballaaran)
CPI ↓ (Inflation hoose)
→ Bangiga dhexe wuxuu dhimaa dulsaar
→ Lacagta wuxuu noqdaa mid daciif ah
→ Forex pairs bearish
CPI waa data-ka ugu awoodda badan FED, ECB, BOE.
4.NFP, Unemployment Rate & Jobless Claims → Suuqa Shaqada
(A) NFP
Haddii shaqooyin badan la abuuro → GDP ↑, CPI ↑
Haddii shaqooyin yaraadaan → GDP ↓, CPI ↓
(B) Unemployment Rate
Heer shaqo la’aan hoose → Dhaqaale xoog → Interest Rate ↑
Heer shaqo la’aan sare → Dhaqaale daciif → Interest Rate ↓
(C) Jobless Claims (weekly indicator)
Kordho → Calaamad dhaqaale daciif → USD daciif
Yaraado → Calaamad dhaqaale xoog → USD xoog
5. GDP – Natiijada ugu dambeysa ee dhammaan xogaha kale
GDP waa isku darka:
Retail Sales (iibsiga dadka)
PMI (wax-soo-saarka)
NFP & shaqo-abuurka
Inflation (CPI)
Investment-ka shirkadaha
Export iyo import
Haddii GDP kor u kaco → Dhaqaalaha wuu wanaagsanaa
Sidaa darteed bangiga dhexe wuxuu kordhiyaa dulsaar.
Haddii GDP hoos u dhaco → Dhaqaale wuu daciifay
Bangiga dhexe wuxuu dhimaa dulsaar, lacagtu wuu daciifaa.
6. Interest Rate (Bangiga Dhexe) GO’AANKA UGU DAMBEEYA
Bangiga dhexe ma go’aansado dulsaarka ilaa uu arko xogaha:
CPI ↑ Inflation sare Rate Increase
CPI ↓ Inflation hoose Rate Cut
Unemployment ↑ Dhaqaale daciif Rate Cut
NFP ↑ Dhaqaale xoog Rate Hike
PMI ↑ Wax soo saar xoog Rate Hike
Retail Sales ↑ Iibsiga badan Rate Hike
GDP ↓ Dhaqaale hoos u dhac Rate Cut
Interest Rate waa meesha xogaha oo dhan isku yimaadaan.
7. Sidey Forex ugu tarjumaan dhamaantood?
Bullish USD/EUR/GBP marka:
CPI ↑ Retail Sales ↑ PMI ↑ NFP ↑
Unemployment ↓ GDP ↑ Interest Rate ↑
Bearish USD/EUR/GBP marka:
CPI ↓ Retail Sales ↓ PMI < 50
NFP ↓ Unemployment ↑ GDP ↓ Interest Rate ↓
CHAIN SUMMARY (Si Kooban oo Aad Slides uga Dhigi Karto)
Retail Sales ↑
→ PMI ↑
→ NFP ↑
→ Unemployment ↓
→ CPI ↑
→ Interest Rate ↑
→ Currency Strong (Bullish)
Retail Sales ↓
→ PMI ↓
→ NFP ↓
→ Unemployment ↑
→ CPI ↓
→ Interest Rate ↓
→ Currency Weak (Bearish)
Mahadsanid
