1. GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Waa maxay GDP?
GDP waa cabirka guud ee wax-soo-saarka dhaqaalaha dalka. Waxay sheegaysaa inta badeeco iyo adeeg ah ee dalka soo saaray muddo cayiman (badanaa saddex bilood/quarter ama sanadka).
Sababta Forex-ka muhiim ugu yahay
GDP waxay muujisaa xoogga dhaqaalaha.
Haddii GDP kor u kacdo → dhaqaalaha waa xoogan yahay, lacagta dalkuna badanaa wuu xoogeysataa.
Haddii GDP hoos u dhaco → dhaqaaluhu waa daciif, lacagta dalku Wey Qiimo Dhacdaa.
Maxaa saameeya GDP?
Wax soo saarka warshadaha
Adeegyada
Dhoofinta & soo dejinta
Khidmadaha dowladda
Isticmaalka dadka (consumption)
Sidee ayuu GDP u saameeyaa suuqa Forex?
GDP-GA sarreeya filashada → USD/GBP/EUR waa kacaan (bullish).
GDP ka hooseeya filashada → lacagta hoos bay u dhacdaa (bearish).
Forex traders badanaa waxay eegaan GDP forecast vs actual.
2. CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Waa maxay CPI?
CPI waa cabirka qiimaha alaabta iyo adeegyada ay shacabka iibsadaan. Waa isku darka waxyaabaha nolosha maalinlaha ah: cuntada, kirada, gaadiidka, caafimaadka, iwm.
Waxaa loogu talagalay in lagu ogaado sicir-bararka (inflation).
Sababta CPI muhiim u yahay
Waa cabirka ugu weyn ee inflation-ka.
Bangiyada dhexe (FED, ECB, BOE) waxay ku go’aamiyaan dulsaar kordhin ama yarayn.
Sidee CPI u saameeyaa Forex?
Haddii CPI kor u kaco → inflation kordhay → bangiga dhexe wuxuu kordhiyaa interest rate → lacagta dalka wuu xoogeysaa.
Haddii CPI hoos u dhaco → inflation yar → dulsaarka la joojiyo ama la dhimo → lacagta wuu daciifaa.
Traders-ka maxay sameeyaan?
CPI waa war high impact.
XAUUSD & USD pairs wax badan ayey u dhaqaaqaan.
Volatility-ka wuxuu bilaabmaa ilbiriqsiyo kadib release-ka.
3. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
Waa maxay NFP?
NFP waa war soo baxa bil kasta oo sheegaya inta shaqo oo cusub oo laga abuurtay gudaha USA, marka laga reebo:
beeraha (farm jobs)
shaqaalaha guriga
shaqaalaha NGO-yada
shaqaalaha dowladda qaarkood
Waa xogta ugu saamaynta weyn Forex-ka.
Sababta NFP muhiim u yahay
Waxay muujisaa xoogga suuqa shaqada ee USA.
USA waa dhaqaalaha ugu weyn dunida, sidaas darteed saameyntu way weyn tahay.
FED waxay ku qiimeysaa go’aamada dulsaarka.
Sidee NFP u saameeyaa Forex?
NFP sare (more jobs) → dhaqaalaha waan kobcayaa → USD wuu xoogeysaa.
NFP hoose (fewer jobs) → dhaqaalaha wuu daciifayaa → USD wuu jabaa.
Kuwa ugu badan ee saameeya NFP
XAUUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
US30, NAS100 (indices)
Waxaa dhacda inta badan
Candle ka hor → liquidity grab
Release → movement weyn (gold jumps 200–400 pips)
Kadib → market retracement
4. Interest Rate (Dulsaarka Bangiga Dhexe)
Waa maxay Interest Rate?
Interest rate waa heerka rasmiga ah ee bangiga dhexe ku kordhiyo ama ku dhimo lacagta uu ku amaahinayo bangiyada kale.
Tusaale: FED → US interest rate
ECB → EUR interest rate
BOE → GBP interest rate
Sida loo akhriyo dulsaarka
Rate Hike (koror)
Rate Cut (hoos u dhigid)
Rate Hold (siduu joogay)
Maxay Forex u saameysaa?
Dulsaarka waa wararka ugu saameynta badan suuqa, sababtoo ah:
Lacagta dulsaarkeedu sarreeyo → maalgashi badan ayay soo jiidataa → lacagta way xoogeysataa.
Haddii dulsaarka la dhimo → lacagta wuu daciifaa.
Sida traders u fal-celiyaan
Market-ka badanaa wuu dhaqaaqaa ka hor release-ka (pricing in).
Waxaa jiri kara manipulation ka hor inta aan wararka la soo saar.
Gold (XAUUSD) wuxuu sameeyaa volatility xoogan.
Saameynta ugu xoogan
USD pairs
XAUUSD
Indices (Dow, Nasdaq)
Xogaha Shaqada (Labor Market Data)
Unemployment Rate (Heerka Shaqola’aanta)
Waa maxay?
Unemployment Rate waa boqolleyda dadka shaqeyn kara ee aan shaqo haysan. Waxaa loo isticmaalaa in lagu cabbiro caafimaadka suuqa shaqada iyo dhaqaalaha guud.
Sidee loo xisaabiyaa?
{Unemployment Rate} = {Dad shaqo la’aan ah} Loo Qeybiyay {Dadka shaqeeya + kuwa shaqo raadinaya} Lagu Dhuftay 100
Maxaa uu sharxaa?
Heerka shaqo la’aanta sare → dhaqaaluhu wuu daciifayaa.
Heerka shaqo la’aanta hoose → dhaqaaluhu waa kobcayaa.
Sidee Forex u saameeyaa?
Unemployment Rate ka sarreeya forecast-ka → USD/EUR/GBP wuu daciifaa.
Unemployment Rate ka hooseeya forecast-ka → lacagta wuu xoogeysaa.
Sababta?
Marka shaqo la’aantu badato → dadka wax ma iibsan karaan → GDP hoos u dhac → bangiga dhexe wuxuu yareeyaa dulsaarka → lacagta daciifaysa.
Pairs-ka ugu badan ka falceliya:
XAUUSD
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Indices (US30, NAS100, SPX500)
Jobless Claims (Dalbashada Shaqo La’aanta – Weekly Claims)
Waa maxay?
Jobless Claims waa tirada dadka usbuuc kasta codsada kaalmada shaqo la’aanta ee USA. Waxaa jira 2 nooc:
1. Initial Jobless Claims – codsiyada cusub
2. Continuing Claims – dadka weli wadata kaalmada
Maxay muhiim u tahay?
Waa xogtada shaqo ee keliya ee usbuucle ah, taasoo u muujisa traders-ka xaaladda hadda taagan.
Sidee Forex u saameeyaa?
Claims sare → dhaqaale daciif → USD daciif
Claims hoose → dhaqaale xoog → USD xoog
Saameynta suuqa
Jobless Claims ma aha sida NFP oo kale volatility, laakiin waxay dhistaa trend-ka mustaqbalka ee NFP iyo Unemployment Rate.
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Xogaha Ganacsiga & Wax-soo Saarka (Trade & Production Data)
PMI – Purchasing Managers’ Index
Waa maxay?
PMI waa cabbir lagu ogaado sida ay u shaqeeyaan warshadaha ama adeegyada dal, iyadoo laga wareysto maamulayaasha wax-soo-saarka.
Waxaa jira laba nooc:
1. Manufacturing PMI – warshadaha
2. Services PMI – adeegyada
Sidee loo akhriyaa PMI?
Ka sarreeya 50 → warshadaha/adeegyada waa korayaan → dhaqaalaha xoog
Ka hooseeya 50 → hoos u dhac → dhaqaalaha daciif
Sidee Forex u saameeyaa?
Haddii PMI kor u kaco → lacagta dalkaa wuu xoogeysaa.
PMI hoos u dhaca → lacagta wuu jabaa.
Pairs-ka ugu saameynta badan:
EURUSD (ECB PMI)
GBPUSD (UK PMI)
USDJPY & XAUUSD (US PMI)
Sababta uu u saameyn weyn yahay:
PMI waa leading indicator – wuxuu muujinayaa waxa mustaqbalka la filayo.
Sales (Iibka Dukaamada – Consumer Spending)
Waa maxay?
Retail Sales waa cabbir muujinaya lacagta dadka isticmaala (consumers) ku bixiyeen dukaamada, iibsiga online-ka, supermarkets, electronics, iwm.
Maxay muhiim u tahay?
Retail Sales → 60–70% GDP-ka dal kasta
Haddii dadka wax badan iibsadaan → dhaqaalaha xoog
Haddii iibsigu yaraado → dhaqaalaha wuu daciifaa
Sidee Forex u saameeyaa?
Retail Sales sare → USD/EUR/GBP xoog (bullish)
Retail Sales hoose → lacagta daciif (bearish)
Sababta?
Wax iibsiga badan → shirkaduhu faa’iido → shaqo badan → inflation kordho → bangiga dhexe kor u qaado dulsaarka → lacagta xoogeysato.
Kuwa ugu saameynta badan:
XAUUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
NAS100 & US30
DHAMAAN
