Ka dib markii la soo dhaafay labadii toddobaad ee u horreeyey bisha June, kuwaas oo caan ku ahaa buuqii iyo ruxmadii waalida ahayd ee ka dhalatay furitaankii bisha, NFP-da, Sicir-bararka (CPI), iyo kulankii masiiriga ahaa ee FOMC, toddobaadka saddexaad wuxuu keenayaa jawi gebi ahaanba ka duwan. Xilligan waxaa loo yaqaanaa "Institutional Expansion Phase" (Wejiga Fiditaanka ee Hay'adaha Maaliyadda).
Maadaama inta badan wararkii ugu miisaanka culus ee dalka Maraykanka horay loo soo saaray, algorithms-ka bangiyada waaweyn (HFTs) asbuucan waxay u dhowaan doonaan dabeecad raacda shaxda iyo farsamada rasmiga ah (Technical Alignment).
Sida caadiga ah, kani waa asbuuc ay dhashaan isbeddello aad u nadiif ah oo soconaya maalmo xiriir ah (Clear Intraday Trends), maadaama qiimuhu uu si toos ah u beegsanayo ujeedooyinkooda maaliyadeed ee badhtamaha bisha isagoon la kulmayrin warar qarax ah oo fashiliya falanqaynta caadiga ah.
Wararka Saameynta Sarreeya ee Isbuuca Saddexaad (The Central Bank Catalyst)
In kasta oo asbuucan uu ka yara xasilloon yahay kii ka horreeyey, haddana jadwalka dhaqaalaha wuxuu xambaarsan yahay hal hub oo aad u culus oo laga dhowrayo qaaradda Yurub:
Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy & Interest Rate (Go'aanka Ribada Ingiriiska)
Lacagta Saameynta Tooska ah: GBP (Pound-ka Ingiriiska) iyo lammaanaha la mataanka ah ee EUR/GBP.
Ahmiyadda: Bangiga Dhexe ee Ingiriiska ayaa soo saari doona go'aankiisa rasmiga ah ee heerka ribada iyo barta ay u ruxayso siyaasadiisa maaliyadeed. Maadaama kulankani uu ku beegan yahay ka dib go'aankii Fed-ka ee asbuucii hore, suuqyadu waxay si adag u eegi doonaan haddii BoE uu qaadi doono tillaabo ka duwan tan Fed-ka.
Saamaynta Fadhiyada: Warkani wuxuu keeni doonaa firfirconi aad u sarreysa inta lagu jiro fadhiga London (London Open Killzone). Haddii BoE uu muujiyo madax-adayg dhanka sicir-bararka ah (Hawkish statement), Pound-ka wuxuu samayn doonaa kor u kac xooggan, isagoo jebin doona aagagga waaweyn ee sahayda (Supply Zones).
Aragtida Farsamada iyo Raadinta Dareeraha (ICT Perspective)
1. Dollarka Maraykanka (USD Index - DXY)
Ka dib markii uu helay jiho cad iyo dib-u-jebin adag (Bullish Rejection) intii uu socday kulankii FOMC ee asbuucii hore, DXY wuxuu asbuucan sii wadi doonaa socodkiisa rasmiga ah.
Wuxuu raadin doonaa inuu buuxiyo aagagga bannaan ee garaafka sida Fair Value Gaps (FVG) ama dib u tijaabiyo aagagga jebinta ee waaweyn (Breaker Blocks / Order Blocks) ee ku dhex jira garaafka maalinlaha ah (Daily Timeframe).
2. Dahabka (XAU/USD) - Beegsiga Dareeraha Gudaha (Internal Range Liquidity)
Dahabku wuxuu hadda ku guda-jiraa marxalad uu ku raadinayo jihada dhabta ah ka dib markii uu suuqa ka saaray dareeraha sare asbuucii la soo dhaafay.
Xeeladda Ganacsiga: U fiirso dhibcaha ugu sarreeya ama ugu hooseeya ee toddobaadkii hore (Previous Week High/Low).
Badhtamaha bisha June, algorithms-ku waxay inta badan marka hore suuqa ka saaraan dareeraha ka dambeeya dhibcahaas (Liquidity Sweep) ka hor inta aysan u ruxmin jihada dhabta ah.
Xeeladaha Ganacsi iyo Maareynta Khatarta ee Isbuuca Saddexaad
Ardayda iyo ganacsatada ku xiran Samaan FX Academy, kani waa asbuucii ugu fiicnaa ee la adeegsan lahaa xeerarka farsamada oo rasmiga ah:
Raacitaanka Jihada Maalinlaha ah (Daily Bias): Maadaama uu suuqu ka madax-bannaan yahay buuqii wararka qaraxa ah, kalsoonida falanqaynta farsamada ayaa kor u kacda. Go'anso jihada garaafka maalinlaha ah (Daily Candle). Marka suuqu uu sameeyo Market Structure Shift (MSS) adoo adeegsanaya waqtiga 1-Hour (H1) si aad u xaqiijiso jihada, u dego waqtiga yar ee 5-Minutes (M5) si aad u hesho dhibicda saxda ah ee aad suuqa ka gelayso (Execution Entry).
Ka Faa'iideysiga Fadhiyada Ganacsiga (Killzones): Diiradda saar saacadaha furitaanka fadhiga London (London Open Killzone) iyo fadhiga New York (New York Open Killzone). Dhaqdhaqaaqyada ugu nadiifsan uguna mugga weyn waxay dhashaan saacadahaas gudaheeda, iyadoo laga fogaanayo suuqa dhexe ee dhiman (Asian Session).
Xeerka Maareynta Faa'iidada (Take Profit Discipline): Maadaama uu qiimuhu si fiican u fidayo (Expansion Phase), ha u oggolaan in hunguri uu kugu rixo inaad jagooyinka u dayso si bilaa xad ah. Ka bixi ganacsi kasta marka qiimuhu gaaro aagagga masiiriga ah ee caabinta ama taageerada (Key Liquidity Targets).
Afeef (Disclaimer)
Fiiro Gaar Ah: Macluumaadka iyo falanqaynta ku xusan maqaalkan waa kuwo loogu talagalay wacyigelinta, waxbarashada, iyo fahamka guud ee suuqyada maaliyadda oo keliya. Ma aha talo bixin maalgashi oo toos ah (Financial Advice).
Ganacsiga Forex iyo CFD-yada wuxuu xambaarsan yahay khatar aad u sarreysa, wuxuuna keeni karaa inaad weydo dhammaan ama qayb ka mid ah raasamaalkaaga (lacagtaada).
Ka hor inta aanad gelin wax ganacsi ah, hubi inaad si buuxda u fahamto khatarta jirta, ama la tashi la sameyso khabiir ku takhasusay la-talinta maaliyadda. Qoruhu mas'uul kama aha wax khasaare ah oo ka dhasha go'aannada aad qaadato.